Futbolnomics
Economia del futbol

The long footballer career is an optical illusion

Earlier debuts and later retirements are outliers that dominate headlines. Average careers have barely shifted; what exploded were the wages of a handful of chosen few.

Bruno SolerBy Bruno Soler·July 17, 2026·6 min read
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The idea going around says that today's footballer debuts earlier, plays more years and earns far more. It sounds neat. Only one of those three legs holds the weight. Average sporting careers have barely moved. What has exploded, dramatically, is the economic career of a handful of chosen few. The rest still play for a short time and earn modest money.

Let's start with age, which is where the myth collapses first. According to the CIES Football Observatory, in its Monthly Report 54, the average age at first appearance in the five major leagues was 21.7 years. No sixteen-year-olds as a norm. Forwards at 21.2, defenders at 22.0, goalkeepers at 23.4. CIES itself quantified the exception: over fifteen years, between 2009 and 2023, only 402 players appeared in the top five leagues as under-eighteens, and just seven debuted before sixteen. Yamal and Mbappé are the tail of the distribution, not its centre. The market still pays in earnest from age twenty-two onwards, with an average signing age of 24.95 years according to the same observatory's Report 78.

Squad age tells the same dull story. The CIES series for the census of 31 UEFA leagues moved from 25.90 years in 2009 to a low of 25.83 in 2014 and to 26.07 in 2019. A drift of two tenths from the floor. This is not a demographic revolution; it is statistical noise in a tie. Lago-Peñas, in a paper published in Frontiers in Psychology in 2019, documented that the average age in the Champions League rose from 24.9 in 1992-93 to 26.5 in 2017-18. One year and six tenths over three decades. Real, measurable, and modest to the point of tenderness. The performance peak, moreover, has not shifted. Dendir placed it in 2016 between 25 and 27, with forwards peaking at 25 and defenders at 27. Sports science stretches the right tail, allows the most professionalised players to play a year or two longer, but it has not moved the average or the peak.

Here is the crux. If sporting careers are barely getting longer, where does the feeling come from that footballers live forever and line their families' pockets for decades? From money. And from survivorship bias, that habit of remembering Modrić at forty at Milan, Pepe retiring at forty-one, Thiago Silva still active, and forgetting that the average footballer doesn't last long. FIFPro cites an average career of around eight years and contracts of under two years in duration. Extreme longevity is a dozen cases that fill front pages. They don't describe the profession; they caricature it.

What did explode, without qualification, was salary. The average Premier League wage rose from £77,083 per year in 1992-93 to over three million in 2019, according to PFA data gathered by Sporting Intelligence and Deloitte. A rise of 2,811 per cent against 109 per cent of general inflation over the same period, a comparison that Frontier Economics itself put on the table. The engine behind all of it was television. Premier League rights went from around £200 million in 1992 to £5 billion in the 2019-20 cycle, and the subsequent cycle closed at even higher figures. Add the Bosman ruling of 1995, which gave freedom of movement at the end of a contract and handed power to agents, and you have the perfect storm of wage inflation.

2,811%
That is how much the average Premier League salary rose between 1992-93 and 2019, against 109% of general inflation over the same period. Television money and the Bosman ruling explain almost everything.
Source: PFA / Sporting Intelligence / Frontier Economics

The economic career of the absolute elite has indeed doubled, or more, but through income accumulation, not seasons played. Forbes estimated that Cristiano Ronaldo accumulated over 2 billion dollars in total career earnings, a large part from the pitch alone, and described him as the first athlete to cross 2 billion while still active. Messi was approaching 1.8 billion according to the same magazine, with a portion from playing contracts and the rest in sponsorships and business ventures. A top player of the nineties generated, at most, tens of millions. Maradona earned around three million in fixed salary at Napoli and eight or ten in sponsorships, figures that adjusted sit at around 26 million annually in today's money. Messi has added more than twelve extra seasons of top-scale earnings compared to that model. Not because he played twice as long, but because the business swelled beneath his feet.

And here comes the most tempting lever: retiring late in markets that pay above sporting value. Cristiano's seasons at Al-Nassr, past the age of thirty-eight, were the most lucrative of his life. Forbes put his club salary at an astronomical annual figure, tax-free, and the extension he subsequently signed was estimated in the hundreds of millions in total according to the same source. Saudi Arabia and MLS function as secondary capitalisation phases. Messi understood it through different engineering: a seven-figure base salary at Inter Miami with a later increase, a revenue-sharing arrangement with Apple through the MLS Season Pass, and a purchase option on a stake in the club. Two models, same logic. Squeeze the brand when the legs no longer deliver what they once did.

The honest objection exists and must be put on the table. Many of these career and wealth figures are Forbes or Celebrity Net Worth estimates, not audited accounts, and they blend salary, bonuses and sponsorships, gross and net, with cheerful accounting. The famous lifetime Nike deal with Cristiano was headlined as a ten-figure sum, but documents leaked by Football Leaks pointed to a considerably lower real value. And the claim that 40 per cent of former footballers go bankrupt within five years of retiring, attributed to XPro, is poorly documented and probably inflated. Editorial hygiene before the easy headline.

But the flip side survives all of that. The FIFPro Global Employment Report of 2016, covering around 14,000 players surveyed across 54 countries, described a three-tier market where over 45 per cent earned less than 1,000 dollars a month and only 2 per cent exceeded 720,000 a year. The union said it plainly: the public assumes that famous stars reflect average earnings, when those wages are vanishingly rare and exclusive to the European elite. The image of the millionaire footballer does not represent the average. It conceals it.

45%
More than four in ten professional footballers earned less than 1,000 dollars a month according to the sector's largest survey. Only 2% exceeded 720,000 a year.
Source: FIFPro Global Employment Report 2016

So the honest sentence is not that footballers play much longer. It is that a handful earn far more for a few extra years, while the entire profession carries on with short careers, brief contracts and modest wages that have barely changed. Next time someone celebrates the golden age of the footballer, ask them about the 45 per cent who earn less than a thousand dollars a month. They play football too.

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Bruno Soler

Bruno Soler

Economics and strategy

Bruno Soler is an economist with an MBA. It was during that master's that he met Carla Costa, and together they spotted a gap in how football is covered: most media focus on what happens on the pitch, while very few explain the economic forces that shape the sport. With that idea they founded Futbolnomics, an outlet specialized in the business of football, where Bruno brings his experience in economics, business strategy and finance to explain — with data and context — how clubs, transfer markets, broadcasting rights, competitions and the multi-billion-dollar industry actually work.

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